With so much downtime, the projects that you’ve had on your “you know I should do this someday” list are now moving into “someday is today” section. One of my projects is re-ranking the lists from my time at rivals.com from 2003 to 2010. 

I was the National College Basketball Recruiting editor for the publication and partnered with Jerry Meyer for the rankings on the site. Over the next couple of weeks, I wanted to roll out some context behind the mindset of the rankings. We hear that drafts and rankings can’t be graded out until there is a body of work. 

Well, the body of work is built out and there is plenty of time to dive into such a process.

So, today we start with the class of 2004. This was the first class that I’ve had some extensive context to be a part of the ranking. This class has some Hall of Famers in it. This class was outstanding. Let’s take a look at the top 150 national rankings. 

Notable links: Inside 2004-2010 Rivals/NBA Draft numbers | 2004 Rivals Rankings | Composite 2004 HS rankings | NBA Draft History 

Before we get into this series, I’d encourage you to go and check out the 2004 rivals.com rankings. 

HOW DID WE DO? 

We did really well with this class. 

There were 18 of our top 26 (five-star) players that were drafted by an NBA team. Thirty-nine of our top 100 (five and four-star) players that were drafted by an NBA team. Forty-four of our top 150 (all entire rankings) that were drafted by an NBA team. 

Fifteen of our top 25 players were drafted in the first round of the NBA Draft. Those numbers are very good. We got it right more times than not. 

Here is how the top 10 played out: 

1. Dwight Howard - No. 1 overall in 2004
2. Shaun Livingston - No. 4 overall in 2004
3. Josh Smith - No. 17 overall in 2004
4. Al Jefferson - No. 15 overall in 2004
5. Rudy Gay - No. 8 overall in 2006
6. Sebastian Telfair - No. 13 overall in 2004
7. Malik Hairston - No. 48 overall in 2008
8. Earl Smith - No. 18 overall in 2004
9. Joe Crawford - No. 58 overall in 2008
10. Randolph Morris - not drafted 

LET’S RE-RANK THE CLASS OF 2004 

1. Dwight Howard
2. Lamarcus Aldridge 
3. Al Horford
4. Kyle Lowery
5. Rajon Rondo
6. Joakim Noah 
7. Roy Hibbert
8. Rudy Gay
9. Al Jefferson 
10. Josh Smith 
11. Shaun Livingston 
12. Marvin Williams
13. Arron Afflalo
14. JR Smith 
15. Rodney Stuckey
16. Courtney Lee
17. Corey Brewer
18. Sebastian Telfair
19. Demarre Carroll
20. Anthony Morrow
21. Nick Young
22. Glen Davis
23. Jordan Farmar 
24. Ramon Sessions 
25. Dorrell Wright
26. Toney Douglas
27. Sean Singletary
28. Jason Smith
29. Randolph Morris
30. DJ White

THE GREAT DEBATE: MORRIS VS ALDRIDGE HORFORD 

We had Randolph Morris as our No. 10 overall ranked player. We were in line with the consensus belief for Morris. Morris went on to a one-and-done season at Kentucky. From there, he played a total of 74 games in the NBA. He played for the Knicks and the Atlanta Hawks. He went on to have a terrific career in China, winning three CBA titles and was named the CBA Finals MVP in 2014. 

So why was he ranked higher than LaMarcus Aldridge (No. 16) and Al Horford (No. 36)? 

When he wasn’t paired with Dwight Howard on the Atlanta Celtics, Morris was the toughest player Howard had to play against. And Morris had great success in this match-ups. I was there for every single one of them.

Aldridge was well-liked by our staff and wasn’t ranked absurdly low. We were big fans of Glen “Big Baby” Davis and DJ White, two guys ahead of Aldridge. You could argue our bias towards players in the Deep South came through here. 

Horford was ranked outside of the top 35 but we had him rated higher than any other publication. He had a really strong week against Howard and the rest of the big men at the adidas All-American game in April 2004. But no one in the industry could have projected him turning into the valuable NBA player that he has become. 

HOW IN THE WORLD DID WE NOT RANK HIM? 

Perhaps call this the ignorance of youth. I will admit, I was still trying to understand this whole cover the entire country objectively and thoroughly at this stage of my career. Enter the issue of Roy Hibbert and not being ranked. He was big, slow of foot and a huge space filler in the paint. My best body of work scouting Hibbert came at the Les Schwab Invitational in Portland, Oregon. 

Looking back on my notes from that event, Hibbert and his loaded Georgetown Prep team lost to Portland (OR) Lincoln, a team they should have easily taken care of. I’m sure that biased my view on Hibbert and the rest of his teammates. That’s the only explanation I can come up. My feelings towards unique big men was positive and I leaned more to ranking that type of prospect higher than the rest of the industry. 

Hibbert, who was not ranked in our Rivals150 list, was drafted in 2008 with the No. overall 17 pick after his All-American and two-time All-Big East career at Georgetown. Hibbert went on to become a two-time NBA All-Star with the Indiana Pacers and one of the premier defenders in the league. 

BIGGEST BUST 

Robert Swift was our No. 14 ranked player in the class (we ranked him lower than all of the other ranking services) and he was drafted in the lottery by the Seattle Supersonic. Swift, a 7-footer from Bakersfield, California, wasn’t quite ready for the pro life. His NBA career fizzled out and his life began to spiral out of control with alcohol and drugs. He hit rock bottom. Swift has returned to hoops after a decade away from the game, appearing in Spain.

THE COLLEGE LIFE

You could argue that this 2004 recruiting class for Florida is the best over the last 20 years and perhaps one the best of all-time. All four players we had ranked played a big role in their back-to-back National Championship run for the Gators. Corey Brewer was the highest-rated of the quartet at No. 31 overall. Al Horford was No. 36 overall. Joakim Noah was No. 75. Taurean Green was No. 105.

Three of the four players are still in the NBA and have had long, successful careers at the pro ranks. Looking back, we obviously ranked Horford and Noah way too low. 

During this exercise, I’ve tried to understand how to grade value to a great college player who didn’t make it to the NBA and stuck. Take for example Sean Singletary. The former Virginia guard had an amazing college career and ranked amongst this class’s best producers. So, how to you value that in a re-rank? 

You could make the same argument for a guy like Chris Lofton, a two-time All-American selection. He is one of the best shooters we’ve seen in college hoops and a three-time All-SEC pick. You could make a case for his inclusion into the top 30 overall. He was No. 146 overall in our final national rankings. 

FINAL NOTES

These class of 2004 players were not ranked but drafted by NBA teams: 
2005 No. 9 overall Patrick O’Bryant, Bradley
2007 No. 16 Nick Young, USC
2007 No. 20 Jason Smith, Colorado State
2007 No. 56 Ramon Sessions, Nevada 
2008 No. 12 Jason Thompson, Rider
2008 No. 17 Roy Hibbert, Georgetown 
2008 No. 22 Courtney Lee, Western Kentucky 

NBA Champs
Shaun Livingston, Golden State Warriors 3x
Jordan Farmar, Los Angels Lakers 2x
Kyle Lowery, Toronto Raptors 
JR Smith, Cleveland Cavaliers
Glen Davis, Boston Celtics
Dorrell Wright, Miami Heat
Rajon Rondo, Boston Celtics
Corey Brewer, Dallas Mavericks
Gabe Pruitt, Boston Celtics 

NBA All-Stars 

Dwight Howard 8x
Lamarcus Aldridge 7x
Kyle Lowery 6x
Al Horford 5x
Rajon Rondo 4x
Joakim Noah 2x

NCAA champs 

Kansas: Russell Robinson, Sasha Kaun, Darnell Jackson 
Florida: Corey Brewer, Al Horford, Joakim Noah, Taureen Green 
North Carolina: Marvin Williams, Quinten Thomas 

NCAA NOTABLE STAT GUYS   

Points (2,000 point scorers) 
Toney Douglas, Florida State 2,189
Sean Singletary, Virginia 2,079 
Shan Foster, Vanderbilt 2,011
Robert Vaden, IU/UAB 2,010 

Rebounds (over 900) 
Glen Davis, LSU 916
Mary Leunen, Oregon 907 

Assists (over 500)
Sean Singletary, Virginia 587 
Drew Neitzel, Michigan State 582 
Jamar Butler, Ohio State 579 
Russell Robinson, Kansas 500

Steals (over 200) 
Russell Robinson, Kansas 247 
Toney Douglas, Florida State 231 
Sean Singletary, Virginia 200 

Blocks (over 200)
Steven Hill, Arkansas 318 
James Gist, Maryland 231 

WOULD HAVE GONE TO… 

- Dwight Howard would have gone to North Carolina. 
- Shawn Livingston was committed to Duke. 
- Josh Smith was committed to Indiana. 
- Al Jefferson was committed to Arkansas. 
- Sebastian Telfair was committed to Louisville. 
- JR Smith was committed to North Carolina. 
- Robert Swift was going to USC.