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National Signing Day storylines

We look at the storylines to watch as the first signing period begins on Wednesday.
11, Nov 2015

National Signing Day storylines

The first signing period is here and the destinations for some of the top high school prospects become official by putting the pen to the paper. While the football side of things can be a lot more fluid and questions are always in line until the prospect signs, the basketball end of the spectrum is a bit more straightforward. Regardless, there are still a few storylines to watch today and over the next seven days before the period ends on November 18.

DOMINOES TO FALL

While most of those signing during the early period this week will be done by those who have already committed, there are a few high-profile prospects that are set on committing and then signing in the ensuing days.

Seventh Woods, a 6-foot-2, highly explosive lead guard made a verbal commitment to North Carolina on Wednesday morning, becoming the first of many to make some noise and push the dominoes further.

Mario Kegler, a 6-foot-7 forward from Mississippi, makes it official later on Wednesday afternoon as the tough and aggressive senior is down to Mississippi State, Indiana, and Maryland, with the SEC bunch looking good in securing his signature.

TJ Leaf, a one-time Arizona commit and 6-foot-9 mobile and skilled forward, commits on Thursday evening and down to UCLA, Oregon, and San Diego State, it would seem that the Bruins have the best shot at him.

De’Aaron Fox, the top prospect planning on making a commitment during the early period, also comes off the board Thursday evening where it looks like Kentucky has the upper hand over the likes of Kansas, Louisville, and LSU.

Lastly, De’Ron Davis, a top-50 center hailing from Colorado and while Mississippi State has done a lot of catch up work with him, the Indiana Hoosiers seem to be in line to receive another interior force joining Thomas Bryant in the paint next fall.

DUKE LEADS THE PACK

The Blue Devils won the NCAA Championship on the backbone of an elite recruiting class led by Jahlil Okafor, Tyus Jones, and Justice Winslow. Now that the three stars are in the NBA, the ACC blueblood sits within most top-10 rankings heading into the new season that kicks off Friday. However, things look even better on the recruiting trail in landing another elite recruiting class and at the moment, the best group of prospects throughout the land.

Can Duke hold off the likes of Kentucky and Michigan State in finishing out the 2016 class atop of the rankings? It looks pretty promising, to say the least. With top-five prospects Jayson Tatum and Harry Giles already in the hopper, along with 6-foot-3 combo guard Frank Jackson and high motor and productive big man Javin DeLaurier, the future hasn’t looked much better in Durham.

What will Kentucky have to do in order to surpass the Blue Devils? For one, they must get things going in the backcourt in landing a commitment from De’Aaron Fox on Thursday. Next, while he won’t sign until April, Malik Monk, a 6-foot-3 explosive guard from Arkansas, is a need. By adding the two elite guards in 2016, they have a chance to surpass Duke, but that still might not be enough. Hence, landing either Jarrett Allen, Marques Bolden, or Bam Adebayo would push them over the top but landing both guards and one of these bigs is asking a bit too much, even with John Calipari at the helm.

Michigan State is all about done with its class except it is fighting for the talents of top-three recruit Josh Jackson. The 6-foot-7 wing won’t sign until the late period and fighting off Arizona, Maryland, and Kansas will be difficult, yet Jackson is a native of the state of Michigan and finishing off an elite class in East Lansing could lure the senior back home as he is currently completing his senior year in California. Miles Bridges, Cassius Winston, Nick Ward, and Josh Langford make up one of the best classes, maybe even the best class, that Tom Izzo has ever put together. By landing Josh Jackson, the Spartans could overtake Duke, but that is a giant could.

SEC PROCLAMATIONS

Over the past few years, the talk surrounding the SEC has been around Florida and Kentucky, and just that. However, after a bunch of scrutiny and talk about upping the out of conference schedules by its member programs, it looks like the basketball within the conference could someday rival the national relevancy that the football programs currently see.

Not only are Vanderbilt, Georgia, Texas A&M, and LSU entering the season along with Kentucky and Florida as potential noisemakers in March, the amount of work being done at programs like Auburn, Alabama, and Mississippi State is all but promising.

Auburn landed quite the inaugural recruiting class last year during Bruce Pearl’s first season at War Eagle. However, he matched it this fall and is led by potential McDonald’s All-American wing Mustapha Heron. Grabbing him out of the northeast corridor was a major coup within itself. Throw in shot-maker Jared Harper and hard-playing and productive big man Anfernee McLemore, and the Tigers should be optimistic about its future within the SEC and beyond.

Alabama is right there with Auburn and in Avery Johnson’s first full recruiting cycle down in Tuscaloosa, boy, did the Tide staff hit the ground running! They picked up a giant commitment in August from Terrance Ferguson, a 6-foot-6 highly athletic, shot-making, and defensive maverick, who should produce from day one for the SEC bunch. Braxton Key followed him and after being chased by Kansas, Florida, and Vanderbilt, the 6-foot-7 forward is the ideal, high-level glue forward who can facilitate, score it, and defend various spots. Throw in junior college wing Ar’Mond Davis and the Crimson are sitting pretty in the early signing period.

Lastly, and the biggest surprise at the current moment, is with the Mississippi State gang. Just like Johnson at Alabama, Ben Howland is in his first full year at MSU and is putting together a potential top-five recruiting class…in basketball! The work his staff has done since taking over earlier this year in Starkville is nothing short of remarkable and after landing in-state guard Malik Newman within the 2015 class, this year’s group looks even better, across the board. The Bulldogs welcome in three high profile and productive guards with Tyson Carter, Lamar Peters, and Eli Wright, along with intimidating big man Schnider Herard. However they aren’t done just yet as they are the favorites for Mario Kegler, who will commit Wednesday afternoon, and look favorable to land one of the two big men that they are involved with including De’Ron Davis, who commits on Thursday, and Abdul Ado, who is down to the likes of Penn State, LSU, Auburn, and the MSU program.

Throw in the quickly improving bottom dwellers from past years in Auburn, Alabama, and MSU, to the already quality crop of middle and top tier programs and the floor in the SEC is hard to be seen.

BIG 12…PLEASE STAND UP

In past years, Kansas has been good enough, on the playing floor and on the recruiting scene, in carrying the baton for the Big 12 conference. However, here we are in the early signing period, and not one program sits within our top-25 class rankings. Unbelievable, right?

What has caused this to happen? First, programs like Kansas and Texas aren’t done just yet and should make some noise down the stretch heading into the late period in April. Along with it, the SEC has poached some of the top prospects from its geographical niche. Texas A&M cleaned up two of its top prospects within Texas in Robert Williams and JJ Caldwell, Kentucky might soon land De’Aaron Fox, Schnider Herard left for Mississippi State, and Terrance Ferguson did just the same taking his talents to Alabama.

Now, there are a lot of programs cluttered together from the 25-50 range nationally from the Big 12 programs, but still, to not have a top-25 class is pretty astonishing. Could we see the similar downturn in production and success on the hardwood that the SEC had seen up until last season? That is definitely a fine talking point and it will be intriguing to watch how others at places like Kansas State, Texas Tech, TCU, and Iowa State add to their programs in the coming months and years.

DO THE TOP DOGS STILL REIGN?

The past few years, it has been Kentucky, Arizona, Kansas, and Villanova that have sit atop of each of their respective conferences in both league play and within the class rankings. However, things are a bit off this year. Sure, all four programs have quality recruits headed to campus next fall, but the amount of competition is more than up to par in possibly knocking off each of these programs atop of the totem pole.

In the SEC, Kentucky has the top class at the moment, but with potential commitments looming, Mississippi State has a shot at landing the best group of seniors. Think about that for a moment. As we already stated, what Ben Howland and his staff have done in Starkville is remarkable and the fact that the Bulldogs could displace the Wildcats from the number one position within our class rankings speaks volumes about what is percolating down in Starkville.

In the Pac 12, things are a bit off with the Wildcats. Sure, there won’t be as many early departures in Tucson compared to past years but with just one commitment and that coming from a foreign born prospect, where will Arizona finish within the Pac 12 rankings? That is up for debate since they aren’t really involved with some of the top prospects left on the board outside of Josh Jackson. UCLA sits firmly atop of the Pac 12 race for the best class in 2016 and Oregon is right behind them; the Wildcats have a lot of work to be done if they want to catch the Bruins and the Ducks.

Like we had touched on earlier, the talent coming to the Big 12 next season isn’t as promising as that heading to the other power conferences. One of the primary reasons for this is the lack of commitments for Kansas at the current moment. With a lone senior in hand with Mitch Lightfoot, KU is far from finished with its 2016 class. They are heavily involved with Udoka Azubuike, Josh Jackson, Marques Bolden, De’Aaron Fox, and Malik Monk, and before things are over with, it wouldn’t be all that surprising to see the Jayhawks at the top spot within the Big 12 Conference rankings once again.

Villanova currently stands with the best class in the Big East but they are fighting off such others as Xavier, Marquette, and Butler, and if anyone might take them off the top spot, it would have to be the Musketeers. They have three guys already in the hopper that give them a nationally recognized class and are much deeper than many presume with 6-foot-3 guard Bruce Brown. While the Boston native likely won’t sign until the late period, the program out of the 513 is definitely one to watch in pushing out Jay Wright’s bunch from the top position. 


Corey Evans has been a member of the HoopSeen family since the summer of 2015. He brings a wealth of experience in scouring the nation in evaluation some of the top prospects from coast-to-coast, and in also finding some of the more under-the-radar prospects from various locales. The managing editor on site, Evans has run a college scouting service, the Roundball Rundown Report, since 2012, as he works with over 100 division-1 college basketball programs from both sides of the nation. Based out of Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, Evans is the primary national contributor at HoopSeen which has broadened the scope of information included within the site itself. 

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